question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables such as inflation and …

series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly …

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate … that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

how published forecasts can be used and we derive a measure of fiscal pressure suitable for the medium term. We find that …

variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time …, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial …