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Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
the sources of higher oil prices is shown to be crucial for assessing the effect of higher oil prices on U.S. real GDP and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662193
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The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s …. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the U.S. and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest … in the link between energy prices and economic performance. This paper addresses a number of the key issues in this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504581
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Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex-Specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance
Qian, Nancy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
Economists long have argued that the severe sex imbalance that exists in many developing countries is caused by underlying economic conditions. This paper uses plausibly exogenous increases in sex-specific agricultural income caused by post-Mao reforms in China to estimate the effects of total...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124182
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Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation
Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247
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Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
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Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models
Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493558
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Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559
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Forecasting the Price of Oil
Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643504
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Energy Demand and Trade in General Equilibrium: An Eaton-Kortum-type Structural Model and Counterfactual Analysis
Egger, Peter; Nigai, Sergey - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper sheds light on the role of the impact of taxes on energy production versus tariffs on imported goods for … trade, energy demand, and welfare. For this, we develop a structural Eaton-Kortum type general equilibrium model of … international trade which includes an energy sector. We estimate the key parameters of that model and calibrate it to domestic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009644033
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Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?
Kilian, Lutz; Lewis, Logan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Since Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997), a common view in the literature has been that systematic monetary policy responses to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks are an important source of aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. economy. We show that there is no evidence of systematic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458291