This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...

It is well known that in the Mundell-Fleming model capital mobility creates a channel through which permanent (transitory) shocks to aggregate demand such as fiscal and trade shocks are completely (partially) neutralized by the response of the real exchange rate. An important policy implication...

Using a human-capital-based growth model, we show the essential role of labour mobility and cross-country tax harmonization in equalizing income levels of countries that start off from different initial income positions. Knowledge spillovers cum labour mobility are the driving forces behind the...

We develop a stylised model of multiple equilibria, with country risk spreads at the focus of the analysis. Fears that the country default on its debt triggers a reversal in the direction of inflows of international financial capital raise interest-rate spreads and thus the cost of servicing the...

This paper brings out the special mechanism through which taxes influence bilateral FDI, when investment decisions are two-fold in the presence of fixed setup flows costs. For each pair of source-host countries, there is a set of factors determining whether aggregate FDI flows will occur at all,...

A number of developing countries have run large and persistent current account deficits in both the late-1970s/early-1980s and in the early-1990s, raising the issue of whether these persistent imbalances are sustainable. This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability and...

The New-Keynesian aggregate supply derives from micro-foundations an inflation-dynamics model very much like the tradition in the monetary literature. Inflation is primarily affected by: (i) economic slack; (ii) expectations; (iii) supply shocks; and (iv) inflation persistence. This Paper...

Even though financial markets today show a high degree of integration, the world capital market is still far from the textbook story of high capital mobility. The failure to have a tax scheme in which the rate of returns across countries are equated can result in inefficient capital flows across...

The ageing of the population shakes the confidence in the economic viability of pay-as-you-go social security systems. We demonstrate how in a political-economy framework the shaken confidence leads to the downsizing of the social security-system, and to the emergence of supplemental individual...

The Paper provides a reconciliation of Lucas’ paradox, based on fixed setup costs of new investments. With such costs, it does not pay a firm to make a ‘small’ investment, even though such an investment is called for by marginal productivity conditions. Using a sample of 45 developed and...