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We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the …. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498073
copious corruption not only decreases incumbent support in local elections in Mexico, but also decreases voter turnout …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084114
Endorsements are a simple language for communication between well-informed interest-group leaders and less-informed interest-group members. The members, who share some policy concerns, may not fully understand where their interests lie on certain issues. If their leaders cannot fully explain the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662385
Much of the analysis of campaign contributions, in accordance with the Downsian model, has supposed that candidates seek contributions for electoral purposes. This paper takes the opposite approach, by assuming that each candidate aims to maximize the contributions he collects. We let a citizen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788909
emerges with nontrivial voting costs and modest altruism. The model can explain higher turnout in close elections as well as … candidates will lose votes to more popular candidates, a phenomenon often called strategic voting. For other parameters, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791465
This paper shows that electoral incentives affect the occurrence of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995-2012 period, we show that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election date. Moreover, disputes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276379
problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic …-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124061
our arguments through discussion of gubernatorial elections in postcommunist Russia, where businessmen frequently run for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136612
contracts, and democratic elections. An information market is used to predict the long-term performance of a policy, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067506
public good spillovers or economies of scale, so that absent elections, voters are indifferent about the fiscal regime. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504327