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We calibrate a standard New Keynesian model with three alternative representations of monetary policy- an optimal timeless rule, a Taylor rule and another with interest rate smoothing- with the aim of testing which if any can match the data according to the method of indirect inference. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491715
We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001), and the classification of fiscal … and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136683
Svensson(1994). We interpret the instantaneous forward rate as the expectations for the overnight rate prevailing at each point … derive a measure of expectations for Central Banks interventions. On this basis we can assess the predictability of monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136777
. Although money is of itself neutral in these models, the presence of menu costs, expectations which are not unit elastic, or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661642
Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check a) the specification b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084547
We use evidence from the term structure of inflation expectations implicit in the nominal yields and survey forecasts …-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We extract private sector expectations of inflation from this model and establish … of inflation to address the question of whether or not monetary policy is effective. We construct a model that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662095
stable rates of inflation in many countries. Consequently, the main goal of this Paper is to offer an overview of the main … policy issues arising in a low inflation environment and their practical relevance so as to identify the main challenges … nominal wage or price rigidities? What does the low inflation environment imply about the relative importance and effects of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666924
at containing inflation and the deviation of output from potential within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools … this loss function under weak assumptions may be estimated from realizations for inflation and output gap data even in the … parameters with respect to the inflation and output objectives during the Greenspan period. We formally test for and reject the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791846
indicator and forecasting properties of the real interest rate gap for inflation, both in the model and in the data. Our results … suggest that the real interest rate gap has value as an inflation indicator, supporting the ‘neo-Wicksellian framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791944
inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123602