We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow …

We study the pricing of political uncertainty in a general equilibrium model of government policy choice. We find that … political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in poorer economic conditions. Political uncertainty …

, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used … uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries. …

compare these optimal rules against plausible alternatives. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the … rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion. …

This Paper investigates the empirical relationship between uncertainty and investment dynamics. This is motivated by … uncertainty, as firms place a greater value on the option to wait. Using simulated data we show that this more cautious behaviour … can be detected as a smaller impact of sales growth on investment for firms facing higher uncertainty. Using a stock …

costs, practices and outcome induce a high level of uncertainty. Second, a high degree of managerial complexity results from … of uncertainty and complexity contribute to reduce the effectiveness of the European patent system and provide additional …

uncertainty and is complementary to the usual explanations: many individuals will simply not know how they will fare under trade … fail to carry the day ex ante because of uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses. Moreover, the role of … uncertainty in determining the outcomes is not symmetric, in that reforms which are initially rejected will continue to be so in …