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Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns

Favero, Carlo A.; Gozluklu, Arie; Tamoni, Andrea - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the dividend-price ratio, dpt, determined by a demographic variable, MY: the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of dpt from this long-run component explain transitory but persistent fluctuations in stock market returns. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468657

Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Ageing Economies

Flodén, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

In the coming decades, the share of people in working age will fall significantly in most developed countries. According to optimal taxation theory, public debts should be reduced before the baby-boom generation retires. I find that if debts are instead maintained at the current levels, welfare...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497919

Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy

Miles, David K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

It is well known that over the next few decades there will be significant changes in the demographic structures of nearly all developed countries; in the absence of massive immigration, or of catastrophic new fatal illnesses, by the middle of the next century the ratio of people of working age...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656147

Comparative Analysis of Labour Market Outcomes: Lessons for the US from International Long-Run Evidence

Bertola, Giuseppe; Blau, Francine D; Kahn, Lawrence - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

We analyse a 1960-96 panel of OECD countries to explain why the US has moved from relatively high to relatively low unemployment over the last three decades. We find that while macroeconomic and demographic shocks and changing labor market institutions explain a modest portion of this change,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114446

Labour Force Growth, Trade, and Employment

Francois, Joseph - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

This paper examines the implications of labour force growth in one region for wages, employment, and production patterns in other regions. These issues are first explored in a stylized dual model incorporating features of both standard factor-based trade models and models of two-way trade and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666533

Risk Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Imperfect Financial Markets

Cerny, Ales; Miles, David K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

This Paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the steady state impact of different pension arrangements in an environment where financial markets are less than perfect. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792047

The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers Across Generations

Iben, Andreas; Miles, David K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998

toward future generations, bequests of wealth are likely to exist. We show that it is likely that more than one generation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656405

Population Ageing and International Capital Flows

Domeij, David; Flodén, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

We use the neoclassical growth framework to model international capital flows in a world with exogenous demographic change. We compare model implications and actual current account data and find that the model explains a small but significant fraction of capital flows between OECD countries, in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661601

Cross Sectional Facts for Macroeconomists

Krueger, Dirk; Perri, Fabrizio; Pistaferri, Luigi; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

cycle, of several dimensions of economic inequality, including wages, labor earnings, income, consumption, and wealth. After …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509469

On the Long Run Evolution of Inheritance - France 1820-2050*

Piketty, Thomas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

1950, and back up to about 15% by 2010. A simple theoretical model of wealth accumulation, growth and inheritance can fully … wealth accumulation well above 100%. Our findings illustrate the fact that when the growth rate g is small, and when the rate … of return to private wealth r is permanently and substantially larger than the growth rate (say, r=4%-5% vs. g=1 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468507