The conditions of the `new EMS' - an absence of exchange rate realignments and corresponding added credibility - have given rise to concern about the stabilization properties of the System. Nominal interest rate divergence may have been narrowed ahead of inflation divergence. Cross-country real...

In this paper simulation methods are employed on a two-country, rational expectations continuous-time model to explore the consequences of asymmetrical wage-price processes. As an additional feature the effects are explored of reductions in the degree of financial integration between the two...

This paper reviews the arguments for and against monetary unification in Europe, taking into account the recent shift in emphasis in discussions of exchange rate regimes. It discusses the merits of irrevocably fixed versus flexible exchange rates in the light of the literature on international...

The EMS's robustness in the face of stochastic shocks is studied, using the Liverpool World Model and the optimal strategy algorithm of Brandsma and Hughes Hallett. The EMS began life in 1979 with a system design permitting regular parity changes; we find this design to be relatively unstable,...

This paper discusses the institutional aspects and the empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that fixed exchange rate regimes work asymmetrically, with one country providing the nominal anchor for the whole system. I derive the observable implications of the 'asymmetry' hypothesis using...

This paper addresses two questions: (1) Is a twelve-country monetary union in Europe feasible? (2) Can monetary union be achieved in stages, i.e. with an initial group of countries going first, and later admitting the others? After examining several politico-economic arguments concerning...

The extent which exchange rate management can coexist with an independent monetary policy is examined in the context of a model with exchange rate bands. Using a Dornbusch model in which stochastic shocks are added to the Phillips curve, we analyze the implications of assuming that the monetary...

This paper explores the hypothesis that the non-German members of the European Monetary System (EMS) draw benefits from the system because of the monetary discipline that it imposes upon them. The hypothesis explains the dominant position of Germany in the EMS and is consistent with the evidence...

This paper investigates the theoretical properties of a class of 'second generation' models of currency crises as well as their applicability to empirical work. We show that under some conditions these models give rise to an arbitrarily large number of equilibria, as well as cyclic or chaotic...

The paper presents various tests of the hypothesis that, through the mechanism of the European Monetary System. Germany exercised a counter-inflationary leadership role in the 1980s. Evidence is provided that expectations of German inflation may be thought of as having impacted more strongly on...