-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and … fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply …

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks … to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of … an estimate of this elasticity based on shifts of the supply curve along the demand curve. We show that, even after …

do not occur ceteris paribus. This makes it necessary to explicitly account for the demand and supply shocks underlying … relationship between oil prices and the economy requires structural models of the global economy including the oil market. …

This paper shows that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition can continue to hold when expectations are not rational and … are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. In temporary equilibrium, with given expectations, Ricardian Equivalence … holds under the standard conditions for its validity under rational expectations. Furthermore, Ricardian Equivalence holds …

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analysed for European exchange rates using daily … expectations and macroeconomic variables, although there are signs that lower inflation improves credibility. Statistically, many … movements to realignment expectations are common to ERM participants. There were few indications of poor ERM credibility before …

This paper analyzes the sources of the differential beliefs of market participants in the foreign exchange market and … their relative role in forming exchange rate expectations. We find that there are distinct periods of high and low … dispersion and document that dispersion arises because of a combined effect of market participants holding individual information …

and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE …

derive a measure of expectations for Central Banks interventions. On this basis we can assess the predictability of monetary … Svensson(1994). We interpret the instantaneous forward rate as the expectations for the overnight rate prevailing at each point … for dates in which some intervention was effectively implemented by Central Banks and for dates in which a policy of no …

current exchange rates have little or no informational content about the market's expectations of future exchange rate … negatively correlated with expected changes in exchange rates and vary more than expectations about future exchange rate …