A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. There is evidence, however, that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting...

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) using US monthly data for bond yields spanning the 1952-2003 sample period and ranging in maturity from 1 month to 10 years. We apply the Lagrange multiplier test developed by Bekaert and Hodrick (2001) and extend it to increase the test power:...

Using novel real-time data on a broad set of economic fundamentals for five major US dollar exchange rates over the recent float, we employ a predictive procedure that allows the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals to evolve over time in a very general fashion. Our key findings...

We examine the relationship between interest rates of different maturities for the US, Germany and Japan over the period 1982-2000, using a general, multivariate vector equilibrium correction modelling framework capable of simultaneously allowing for asymmetric adjustment and regime shifts. This...

We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (i) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate; (ii)...

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data going back to the late 1800s or early 1900s for six industrialized countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between...

This Paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime-switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989,...

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may...

A major puzzle in international finance is the inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While prior research has generally evaluated exchange rate forecasts using conventional statistical...

We examine empirically whether asset prices and exchange rates may be admitted into a standard interest rate rule, using data for the US, the UK and Japan since 1979. Asset prices and exchange rates can be employed as information variables for a standard `Taylor-type' rule or as arguments in an...