This paper examines the channels through which offshoring affects employment in a representative sample of German establishments, using a difference-in-differences matching approach. Offshoring establishments are identified by an increase in the share of foreign to total inputs. We find that an...

This paper examines the link between imported technologies and a country’s export performance, as measured by product quality. The analysis is set against the background of the process of regional integration between the EU and its neighbouring developing countries. The underlying question is...

Africa, while a major aid recipient, has had disappointing export performance. This paper argues for a causal link: aid, by being partially spent on non-traded goods, leads to real appreciation and reduced export competitiveness. I demonstrate the importance of this effect by presenting...

In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...

We introduce learning into a Hotelling model of a non-renewable resource market. By combining learning and scarcity we add significantly to the dynamics implied by learning and substantially enhance the volatility of commodity prices. In our learning model we show how a self confirming...

The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important concern among policymakers and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major oil price increases of 1973/74 and 1979/80. This paper...

We estimate an aggregate econometric model of the industrial economies using annual data drawn from the postwar period. The model includes equations for GDP, inflation, interest rates and non-oil commodity prices. GDP and inflation reflect the evolution of aggregate supply and demand while...

Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures prices over the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has...

This paper presents a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel data sets of the global and Canadian economies, we first identify those demand and supply shocks that explain most of the volatility in...

We provide evidence that fiscal policy in resource-rich countries is strongly procyclical. The empirical analysis reveals that on average real government consumption in these countries tends to significantly rise (fall) in good (bad) times. To control for endogeneity we use an instrumental...