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Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This paper examines exchange rate passthrough to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980-2009. A methodological innovation allows various short-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784768
A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices but very few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This paper explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa during 2002-2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084277
that the parameters of this VAR are unstable. However, using our proposed identification method we are able to attribute … instability in the parameters of the VAR solely to changes in the parameters of the policy rule. We recover parameter estimates of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124223
and what assumptions we have made in doing so. Furthermore, we perform a VAR analysis to provide some simple empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083948
Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models were introduced in 1980 as an alternative to traditional large … of the structural VAR methodology often were atheoretical in that users paid insufficient attention to the conditions … identifying assumptions the structural VAR literature has continuously evolved since the 1980s. This survey traces the evolution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201117
We explore whether forecasting an aggregate variable using information on its disaggregate components can improve the prediction mean squared error over first forecasting the disaggregates and then aggregating those forecasts, or, alternatively, over using only lagged aggregate information in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123796
An important preliminary step in impulse response analysis is to select the vector autoregressive (VAR) lag order from …-squared error of the implied impulse response estimates. We conclude that for monthly VAR models, the Akaike Information Criterion … quarterly VAR models, the Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQC) appears to be the most accurate criterion with the exception of sample …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123979
Using indirect inference based on a VAR we confront US data from 1972 to 2007 with a standard New Keynesian model in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692309
We calibrate a standard New Keynesian model with three alternative representations of monetary policy- an optimal timeless rule, a Taylor rule and another with interest rate smoothing- with the aim of testing which if any can match the data according to the method of indirect inference. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491715
gap, and the interest rate, and we compare with evidence from survey data and a VAR model. We find that the strongest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123552