Showing 1 - 10 of 90
We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083953
resulting volatility can induce risk-averse transactors who face transaction costs to desert these markets altogether. Thus … thinness and the consequent price volatility may become joint self-perpetuating features of an equity market, whatever the … volatility of asset fundamentals. If, however, appropriate incentive schemes are adopted to encourage entry of additional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662005
, and 20th), we estimate a robust and significant time-varying, non-monotonic effect of climatic temperature upon current … incomes for a cross-section of 167 countries. We find a large, positive effect of 18th century climatic temperature and an … even larger, negative effect of 19th century climatic temperature upon current incomes. When historic, climatic temperature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491725
We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it … to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by … unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011249371
This paper studies the role of detrended wealth in predicting stock returns. We call a transitory movement in wealth one that produces a deviation from its shared trend with consumption and labor income. Using quarterly stock market data we find that these trend deviations in wealth are strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123769
While there is a strong presumption in the financial press that oil prices drive the stock market, the empirical evidence on the impact of oil price shocks on stock prices has been mixed. This paper shows that the response of aggregate stock returns may differ greatly depending on whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124011
A model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504613
This paper analyzes why corporate governance matters for stock returns if the stock market prices the underlying managerial agency problem correctly. Our theory assumes that strict corporate governance prevents managers from diverting cash flows, but reduces incentives for managerial effort. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165663
A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084643
higher quality banking system decreases the volatility of stock returns. It also contributes to a greater synchronization in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666653