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From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives under Numerical Fiscal Rules

Buti, Marco; Martins, Joao Nogueira; Turrini, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

deficit and debt developments. We develop a simple theoretical model where deficits and two distinct SFA components (one that … could be used to reduce the deficit figures and the other to impact debt figures instead) are determined as a result of a … component related to the purpose to hide deficits rises with the recorded deficit, while the sales of financial assets designed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788949

Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey

Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

This paper provides an overview of the panel VAR models used in macroeconomics and finance. It discusses what are their distinctive features, what they are used for, and how they can be derived from economic theory. It also describes how they are estimated and how shock identification is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084384

Error Correction Models, Co-integration and the Internal Model Principle

Salmon, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1988

The paper considers the conditions under which a system of dynamic equations will be consistent with some prespecified multivariate equilibrium specification. Connections are also drawn between what is known as 'the internal model principle' in the design of robust linear feedback rules and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667069

Excesses and Limits of the Public Sector in the Italian Economy. The Ongoing Reform

Schioppa, Padoa; Kostoris, Fiorella - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

This paper provides factual evidence on the extent of public intervention in the Italian economy. It further illustrates the internal contradictions and weaknesses of public action in Italy. New policy proposals to solve old structural problems of the Bel Paese are then discussed. Among them, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498095

Fiscal Sustainability and Demographics - Should We Save or Work More?

Andersen, Torben M - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

Approaching demographic shifts are raising concerns about fiscal sustainability in most OECD countries. A widespread view based on the tax-smoothing idea is that a prior consolidation of public finances is required to cope with the predicted trend deterioration in the primary budget balance....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504685

Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt

Giannitsarou, Chryssi; Scott, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

the primary deficit with future values of inflation, interest rates, GDP and narrow money growth and changes in the … primary deficit. This relationship defines a natural measure of fiscal balance and can be used as an accounting identity to … through adjustments in the primary deficit (80-100%), with less substantial roles being played by inflation (0-10%) and GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497882

The 'Sense and Nonsense of Maastricht' Revisited: What Have We Learnt About Stabilization In EMU?

Buiter, Willem H. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

Excessive Deficit Procedure turns out to be attending a wake. The reforms of the Pact adopted in March 2005 effectively killed … macroeconomic stability, the case for the supranational imposition, monitoring and enforcement of public debt and deficit rules is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498135

The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation

Faraglia, Elisa; Marcet, Albert; Oikonomou, Rigas; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

In the context of a sticky price DSGE model subject to government expenditure and preference shocks where governments issue only nominal non-contingent bonds we examine the implications for optimal inflation of changes in the level and average maturity of government debt. We analyse these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083281

Why do governments default, and why don't they default more often?

Buiter, Willem H.; Rahbari, Ebrahim - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

This paper considers the economic and political drivers of sovereign default, focusing on countries rich enough to render sovereign default a ‘won’t pay’ rather than a ‘can’t pay’ phenomenon. Unlike many private contracts, sovereign debt contracts rely almost exclusively on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084128

To Purgatory and Beyond: When and How Should the Accession Countries from Central and Eastern Europe Become Full Members of EMU?

Buiter, Willem H. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

The Paper discusses how the EU accession countries should pursue full membership in the EMU: adopt the euro. The key messages are the following: 1) Even the largest of the accession countries is too small, too open and too vulnerable to speculative attacks to be a viable optimal currency area....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666853