New evidence suggests that individuals "learn from experience," meaning they learn from events occurring during their own lifetimes as opposed to the entire history of events. Moreover, they weigh more heavily the more recent events compared to events occurring in the more distant past. This...

The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors` subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs....

We study the effect of frequent trading opportunities and categorization on pricing of a risky asset. Frequent opportunities to trade can lead to large distortions in prices if some agents forecast future prices using a simplified model of the world that fails to distinguish between some states....

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy...

Under rational expectations monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure --- anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper...

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time-varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to choose between models in a self-referential system, we find that learning dynamics lead to selection...

Forward-looking RE models such as the popular New Keynesian (NK) model do not provide a unique prediction about how the model economy behaves. We need some mechanism that ensures determinacy. McCallum (2011) says it is not needed because models are learnable only with the determinate solution...

The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...

In many bilateral transactions, the seller fears being underpaid because its outside option is better known to the buyer. We rationalize a variety of observed contracts as solutions to such smart buyer problems. The key to these solutions is to grant the seller upside participation. In contrast,...

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The expected return from investing depends on demand expectations, which are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to an aggregate demand externality, investment subsidies can improve welfare in this...