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Jeanne, Olivier; Rose, Andrew K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

exchange rate, not by measurable macroeconomic fundamentals. This motivates a theoretical analysis of exchange rate regimes … to lower exchange rate volatility without altering macroeconomic fundamentals. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666966

The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange

Gehrig, Thomas; Menkhoff, Lukas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

questionnaire evidence. We find that fund managers and FX dealers differ significantly. Fund managers rely more on fundamentals …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791422

The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530341

Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments

Jeanne, Olivier - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

broadens the set of fundamentals to nonmonetary variables, including unemployment or the state of the banking sector, and even … "softer" fundamentals such as the reputation of the policymaker and the rules of the game played by the participants in a … fixed exchange rate arrangement. It also suggests that the relationship between the economic fundamentals and devaluation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123792

The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

Della Corte, Pasquale; Sarno, Lucio; Sestieri, Giulia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008684687

The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?

Fattouh, Bassam; Kilian, Lutz; Mahadeva, Lavan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but …, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084244

Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises

Vries, Casper G de; Hartmann, Philipp; Straetmans, Stefan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals’ distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or … crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals … fundamentals. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661842

Environmental Policy and Capital Movements: The Role of Government Commitment

Marsiliani, Laura; Renström, Thomas I - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

This Paper explores the relationship between environmental protection and international capital movements, when tax policy is endogenous (through voting). A two-period general equilibrium model of a small open economy is specified to compare the effects of two different constitutions (commitment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792126

Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries

Manzocchi, Stefano; Martin, Philippe - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996

We identify the determinants of capital movements in an ‘augmented-Solow’ model where capital mobility is restricted to a subset of capital assets. We then test the prediction of the neoclassical model and find that it is consistent with the evidence on net capital flows in a cross-section...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661577

Interjurisdictional Competition and the Efficiency of the Public Sector: The Triumph of the Market over the State?

Rauscher, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

It has been argued in the literature that interjurisdictional competition forces the public sector to increase its efficiency and thus helps to tame Leviathan governments. The paper addresses this hypothesis by means of a simple tax-competition model with a Leviathan state. It is seen that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661777