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of diagnostic tests. The models are shown to produce good in-sample forecasting performance and also out …-of-sample forecasting performance which dominates a random walk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788881
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fall in response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643505
Using indirect inference based on a VAR we confront US data from 1972 to 2007 with a standard New Keynesian model in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692309
Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models were introduced in 1980 as an alternative to traditional large … of the structural VAR methodology often were atheoretical in that users paid insufficient attention to the conditions … identifying assumptions the structural VAR literature has continuously evolved since the 1980s. This survey traces the evolution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201117
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labour productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662111
-1999. Three popular methods of estimating uncertainty from survey data are analysed in the context of models for forecasting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789160
. Applied to two accession countries, Hungary and Poland, a VAR system is estimated for each that incorporates endogenously …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791637
We calibrate a standard New Keynesian model with three alternative representations of monetary policy- an optimal timeless rule, a Taylor rule and another with interest rate smoothing- with the aim of testing which if any can match the data according to the method of indirect inference. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491715
We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496453