Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … at containing inflation and the deviation of output from potential within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

futures contracts. Their hedging demand is met by financial intermediaries who act as speculators, but are constrained in risk …-taking. Increases (decreases) in producers’ hedging demand (the risk-bearing capacity of speculators) increase the costs of hedging … 1980-2006, we show that producers’ hedging demand - proxied by their default risk - forecasts spot prices, futures prices …

¤s, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for …

domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before … rate risk. When the fixed exchange rate is abandoned in favor of a crawling peg banks go bankrupt, the domestic interest …

This paper examines and compares the effectiveness of hedging and buffer-stock strategies for stabilizing the revenues …

stochastic. It then uses the results to explain the dynamics of hedging. Bankruptcy rules are important determinants of corporate … produce the same prices, they can have very different hedging implications. We show that empirical results on the relation …