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Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?
Lei, Yu-Hsiang; Michaels, Guy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351523
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The Long-Term Consequences of Regional Specialization
Michaels, Guy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
What are the consequences of resource-based regional specialization, when it persists over a long period of time? While much of the literature argues that specialization is beneficial, recent work suggests it may be costly in the long run, due to economic or political reasons. I examine this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123671
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Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528526
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The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil
Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530341
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A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s
Barsky, Robert; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important concern among policymakers and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major oil price increases of 1973/74 and 1979/80. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124085
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Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145393
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Financial constraints and innovation: Why poor countries don't catch up
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Schnitzer, Monika - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
level of income and export intensity. Specifically, the paper investigates theoretically and empirically how financial … constraints affect a firm's innovation and export activities. Theoretical predictions are tested using unique firm survey data … constraints strongly adversely affect the ability of domestically owned firms to innovate and to export and hence to catch up to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468676
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Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure
Rose, Andrew K; Spiegel, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 countries; we focus on international linkages that may have allowed the crisis to spread across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528523
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Why do within firm-product export prices differ across markets?
Görg, Holger; Halpern, László; Muraközy, Balázs - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
In this paper we analyse the relationship between gravity variables and f.o.b. export unit values using Hungarian firm …-product-destination data. By taking firm-product level selection into account we show that export unit values increase with distance even for … relationship between unit values and market size. We propose two possible explanations: first, firms may export different quality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530371
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An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence from French Firms
Eaton, Jonathan; Kortum, Samuel S; Kramarz, Francis - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
adopt a model of firm heterogeneity and export participation which we estimate to match moments of the French data using the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124187