Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the ECB Securities Markets Programme. If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily (or weekly) price changes may bias downwards the correlation between...

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims at containing inflation and the deviation of output from potential within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks...

In deciding a monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk...