Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and … policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available … information. We explore a range of new forecasting approaches for the retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with the …

no-change forecast and its directional accuracy as high as 73%. Our results are robust to alternative oil price measures …-time forecasts of the real and the nominal price of oil in a format consistent with that employed by the U.S. Energy Information … Administration in releasing its short-term oil price forecasts, and we compare these forecasts during key historical episodes. …

Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one … important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is … product spread, defined as the difference between suitably weighted refined product market prices and the price of crude oil …

A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but … determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This … existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead …

liquidity, especially for stocks with small market capitalization, high volatility and no listed options; (ii) slowed down price …

-based illiquidity: trading volume dropped and price impact rose. Importantly, despite short-term cash infusions into the market, we find …

price discovery we define several measures in tick time. These measures can be aggregated to calendar time and we define a … lead to lower price discovery. In terms of price discovery we find that ECNs tend to dominate the liquid stocks, whereas …

maximal when access to price information is rationed. We show that a market for price information can implement the fraction … of insiders that maximizes investors’ average welfare. This market features a high price to curb excessive acquisition of …

that there is no theoretical support for the common view that oil futures prices are good predictors of the spot price in … the real spot price that is not necessarily associated with an accumulation of oil inventories. Our main result is that … the negative of the basis may be viewed as an index of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary …