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unexplained increases in factor loadings as indicative of contagion. We find evidence of systematic contagion from US markets and … contagion from domestic equity markets to individual domestic equity portfolios, with its severity inversely related to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009148883
debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries’ fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the … spreads during the crisis, not only for euro area countries but globally. By contrast, regional spillovers and contagion have … been less important, including for euro area countries. The paper also finds evidence for herding contagion – sharp …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084109
This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a 'sovereign risk channel' through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083641
High-debt countries may face the risk of self-fulfilling debt crises. If the public expects that in the future the government will be unable to roll over the maturing debt, they may refuse to buy debt today and choose to hold foreign assets. This lack of confidence may then be self-fulfilling....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497997
Under free capital mobility, confidence crises can lead to devaluations even when fixed exchange rates are viable, if fiscal authorities can obtain temporary money financing of deficits. During a crisis domestic interest rates increase, reflecting the expected devaluation. Rather than selling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791449
This Paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis, which generalizes … existing tests, and applies it to the international effects of the Hong Kong stock market crisis of October 1997. Contagion is … country-specific shocks in Hong Kong, our test finds evidence of contagion for 5 countries out of a sample of 17. This is in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791976
This paper explores to what extent the magnitude and speed of the contagion effects that materialized in East Asia in … with each other on world markets; or, to the contrary that Asia is best regarded as an integrated economy with countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661909
We propose a model-based measure of sovereign credit ratings derived solely from the fiscal position of a country: a forecast of its future debt liabilities, and its potential to use tax policy to repay these. We use this measure to calculate credit ratings for fourteen European countries over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083470
A methodology for generating sovereign credit ratings based on macroeconomic theory is proposed. This is applied to quarterly U.S. data from 1970 to 2011. Over this period the official credit rating of U.S. Treasury securities has been of the highest quality. In contrast, the model-based measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084723
Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this "sovereign risk channel." The model is calibrated to the euro area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084472