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Multivariate unobserved components (structural) time series models are fitted to annual post-war observations on real income per capita in countries in the euro zone. The aim is to establish stylized facts about convergence as it relates both to long-run income levels and to cycles. The analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067405
We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Key in this … argue that the nowcasting process goes beyond the simple production of an early estimate and it consists in the analysis of … nowcasting traditionally conducted in policy institutions and used, alongside the judgemental procedures, in many central banks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468620
Markov-switching models. After a discussion of estimation and inference for MS-MIDAS, and a small sample simulation based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481
for forecasting GDP growth at short-term horizons in the euro area. We discuss three sets of empirical results. First we … forecast revisions. Third we design a pseudo out of sample forecasting exercise and examine point and density forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083444
exchange can be usefully exploited in forecasting future spot exchange rates. I use signal-extraction techniques, based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661737
This paper integrates the production-theory approach to import determination and the production-theory approach to immigration. The aggregate technology is described by a four-input translog cost function, from which the demand for imports and the demand for foreign labour services can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791652
This Paper examines how aversion to risk and aversion to intertemporal substitution determines the strength of the precautionary saving motive in a two-period model with Kreps-Porteus preferences. For small risks, we derive a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792387
. However, estimated real-time models considerably improve out-ofsample forecasting performance, provide more accurate ‘nowcasts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528535
paper, we compare their performance in a relevant case for policy making, i.e., nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528546
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the presence of model uncertainty with …, amongst others, the factor estimation method and the number of factors, lag length and indicator selection. Thus, there are … forecasting quarterly German GDP, a key macroeconomic indicator for the largest country in the euro area, with a large set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123534