, imagination and independence in children) to five different measures of religiosity, including beliefs and attendance. We control …

We analyze the joint dynamics of religious beliefs, scientific progress and coalitional politics along both religious … but sometimes erode religious beliefs; (ii) a government, endogenously in power, that can allow such innovations to spread …

. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs … between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in …

activity. This paper examines the accuracy of these perceptions by comparing Indonesian villagers' stated beliefs about … find that villagers' beliefs do contain real information, and that villagers are sophisticated enough to distinguish … there are biases in beliefs that may affect citizens' monitoring behaviour. For example, ethnically heterogeneous villages …

Much of the political economy analysis of reform focuses on the conflict of interest between groups that stand to gain … educational bureaucracy. It is documented that the beliefs of that bureaucracy differ substantially from those of the broader … entropy defines how predictable one’s occupation is as a function of one’s beliefs. Heritability is the weight of the family …

supply disturbances. Combining this framework with reasoned conjectures on how policy-makers' beliefs have changed helps …

fall in inflation in the 1980s was attributed to the changing beliefs informing monetary policy. To explain the escape in …

beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over … process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases …