This paper reconsiders the relationship between inflation, economic growth and external debt, and discusses various … channels through which (a) increased inflation tends to reduce growth and raise foreign indebtedness over time and (b …) declining growth tends to amplify both inflation and debt. Based on a simple model of the simultaneous determination of …

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate … that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

how published forecasts can be used and we derive a measure of fiscal pressure suitable for the medium term. We find that …

question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables such as inflation and … decisions and to compare current policy to historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes …

series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly …

and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred MIDAS model reduces the MSPE by … as much as 16 percent compared with the no-change forecast and has statistically significant directional accuracy as high …

variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time …, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial …

systematically evaluated. This paper reviews the recent evaluation findings and draws some conclusions for the future setup of active … a systematic evaluation of all instruments not scrutinized so far. …