This paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a simple … model with Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand parameter in each of the markets … their beliefs following a new demand shock, the younger they are. To test this learning mechanism, we make use of a specific …

between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting … different econometric methodology. Rather than inferring demand shocks from an econometric model, we utilize a direct measure of … global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts. We show that recent forecast surprises …

-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and … fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply … prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters: Both monetary and fiscal policy …

change in oil inventories, if the short-run price elasticity of oil demand is zero. Our structural model allows us to obtain … an estimate of this elasticity based on shifts of the supply curve along the demand curve. We show that, even after … accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the price elasticity of oil demand is not …

We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand … option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the price of any other option by an amount proportional to the covariance of … show that demand-pressure effects contribute to well-known option-pricing puzzles. Indeed, time-series tests show that …

When a supply and demand model is recursive, with errors uncorrelated across the two equations, ordinary least squares …

In this paper I develop the Discrete Choice Analytically Flexible (DCAF) model of demand for differentiated products …. DCAF relaxes the constraints imposed on the matrix of own- and cross-price elasticities of demand by popular analytic …-price elasticities of demand. Under well defined constraints on the parameters, which may or may not be imposed in estimation, DCAF is …

do not occur ceteris paribus. This makes it necessary to explicitly account for the demand and supply shocks underlying …

UK to (i) document these differences; (ii) estimate a demand system for food and nutrients, and (iii) simulate …