. The model identifies a measure of “pure” inflation: the common component in goods’ inflation rates that has an … equiproportional effect on all prices and is uncorrelated with relative price changes at all dates. The estimates of pure inflation and … pure inflation accounts for 15-20% of the variability in overall inflation, so that most changes in inflation are …

In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the … inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations … the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation …

This paper introduces a new indicator of core inflation for New Zealand, estimated using a dynamic factor model and … core indicator with a wide range of other ‘core inflation’ measures estimated from disaggregate consumer prices, such as … the weighted median and the trimmed mean. The medium term inflation target of Reserve Bank of New Zealand is used as a …

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This … study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by …

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …

This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …

real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate. The primary results of the paper are based on a small three …-equation macro model that includes equations for the inflation rate, the nominal Federal Funds rate, and the change in the output gap … the model’s inflation equation, and the error term in the output gap equation that is interpreted as representing 'IS …

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth … curve for China and show that the output gap, the exchange rate, and inflation expectations play important roles in … explaining inflation. We adjust for structural change in the economy where possible and estimate regressions for rolling sample …

-neutrality; leads to a strong positive correlation between inflation and output; and contributes significantly to output volatility. We …