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This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791523
Cross-country evidence on inflation and inequality suggests that they are positively correlated. I explore the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792380
Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084150
We introduce the model of asset management developed in Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny (GSV, 2014) into a Solow-style neoclassical growth model with diminishing returns to capital. Savers rely on trusted intermediaries to manage their wealth (claims on capital stock), who can charge fees above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084567
This is a case study of how a country nearly reached bankruptcy in March 2013, within five years from entering the Eurozone. The magnitude of the requested assistance is extremely large relative to GDP (100%) and studying this event provides useful lessons for avoiding such crises in the future....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084648
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effects of inflation through changes in the value of nominal … redistribution brought about by a moderate inflation episode. Redistribution takes the form of 'ends-against-the-middle': the middle … class gains at the cost of the rich and poor. In addition, inflation favours the young over the old, and hurts foreigners. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789015
-2001 had an important impact on inflation divergence within the EMU and in particular the surge in Ireland’s inflation to over … contribute to inflation convergence and in particular to a fall in Irish inflation? Fortunately for us, the theory has passed the … test with flying colours. Irish inflation stopped dead in its tracks: consumer prices were unchanged between May and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789034
We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990 …. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with …, they give clear prior turning point information with relatively few `false signals'. Nevertheless, we find that inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789113
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791238
Dynamic models in which agents' behaviour depends on expectations of future prices or other endogenous variables can have steady states that are stationary equilibria for a wide variety of expectations rules, including rational expectations. When there are multiple steady states, stability is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791468