used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an … estimated stimulus is extremely small just when needed most, and GDP and employment effects are only one-sixth as large, with …

anticipation of such medium-term spending cuts generally enhances the expansionary effect of short-run fiscal stimulus. This …

Does the fiscal multiplier depend on the exchange rate regime and, if so, how strongly? To address this question, we …

sovereign default premia, government consumption, and output. We find that whether austerity pays off depends on a) initial … premia in benign times. These findings pertain to the short run. Austerity always pays off in the long run, but particularly …

After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on … the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying … novel approach, we show that austerity is always a drag on growth, and especially so in depressed economies: a one percent …

that tax shocks are orthogonal to each other as well as to lagged values of other macro variables. Our estimated multiplier … after 1980) we find, before 1980, a multiplier whose size is never greater than one, after 1980 a multiplier not …