We fit nonlinearly mean-reverting models to real dollar exchange rates over the post-Bretton Woods period, consistent with a theoretical literature on transaction costs in international arbitrage. The half lives of real exchange rate shocks, calculated through Monte Carlo integration, imply...

In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the...

Tests for long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) may lack power with sample periods corresponding to the span of the recent float, leading researchers to use more powerful multivariate unit root tests. We point out a potential problem with such tests: joint non-stationarity of real exchange...

The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time series behaviour of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general framework in which alternative...

This paper formulates an optimizing model of a small open economywith a representative (immortal) household, a firm and agovernment. The asset menu consists of domestic currency,non-traded bonds and traded bonds. There is a risk-premium ontraded bonds, which leads to deviations from perfect...

We propose an exchange rate model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate movements and thus in some measure resolves Rogoff’s (1996) purchasing power parity puzzle. Our analysis reconciles the well-known difficulties in beating the...

The standard expectations augmented theory of ex-ante purchasing power parity (PPP), which was first developed by Roll, assumes that agents are risk neutral. A Covered Purchasing Power Condition is developed which holds for the general case of risk aversion. A risk-augmented form of ex-ante PPP...

In this Paper we test empirically the validity of the law of one price using data for five major bilateral US dollar exchange rates and nine goods sectors during the recent floating exchange rate regime since the early 1970s. Using threshold autoregressive models, we find strong evidence of...

This Paper analyses purchasing power parity (PPP) for the euro area. We study the impact of the introduction of the euro in 1999 on the behaviour of real exchange rates. We test the PPP hypothesis for a panel of real exchange rates within the euro area over the period 1973-2003. Our methodology...