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The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas

Davis, Lucas W; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

federal regulation. Several studies have measured the deadweight loss from the price ceilings that were imposed during this … analysis for the regulation of other markets. Using a household-level, discrete-continuous model of natural gas demand we …-2000, effectively doubling previous estimates of the total welfare losses from natural gas regulation. We find that these allocative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791833

Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models

Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528526

The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530341

A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s

Barsky, Robert; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important concern among policymakers and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major oil price increases of 1973/74 and 1979/80. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124085

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145393

Determinants of Expropriation in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data

Guriev, Sergei; Kolotilin, Anton; Sonin, Konstantin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

In this paper we study nationalizations in the oil industry around the world in 1960-2002. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that governments are more likely to nationalize when oil prices are high and when political institutions are weak. We consider a simple dynamic model of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662343

Long-run patterns in market efficiency and the genesis of the market economy: Markets around the Mediterranean from Nebuchadnezzar to Napoleon (580 BC and 1800AD)

Földvári, Péter; van Leeuwen, Bas; Zanden, Jan Luiten Van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Price volatility, reflecting the ability to absorb exogenous supply- or demand shocks, is an important dimension of market performance. In this paper we present a model to study the factors determining the price volatility of markets of basic foodstuffs in pre industrial societies. This model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009246614

The Cliometrics of International Migration: A Survey

Hatton, Timothy J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This is a survey of some of the key studies in the literature on international migration in history that may be described as cliometric. This literature uses the concepts and approaches of applied economics to investigate a range of historical issues and there are strong parallels with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468557

The Rise and Decline of European Parliaments, 1188-1789

Bosker, Maarten; Buringh, Eltjo; Zanden, Jan Luiten Van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

Starting in Spain in the twelfth century, parliaments gradually spread over the Latin West. The paper quantifies the activity of medieval and early-modern parliaments, which also makes it possible to analyse the influence of this institutional innovation. In the early-modern period parliaments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530357

Lost Decades: Lessons from Post-Independence Latin America for Today's Africa

Bates, Robert H; Coatsworth, John H; Williamson, Jeffrey G - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Africa and Latin America secured their independence from European colonial rule a century and half apart: most of Latin America after 1820 and most of Africa after 1960. Despite the distance in time and space, they share important similarities. In each case independence was followed by political...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136542

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