Showing 1 - 10 of 231
This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus’ (1798) so-called preventive check...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123712
This research explores the origins of the distribution of time preference across regions. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically, that geographical variations in natural land productivity and their impact on the return to agricultural investment have had a persistent effect on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083828
This paper investigates how telecommunications infrastructure affects economic growth. This issue is important and has received considerable attention in the popular press concerning the creation of the 'information superhighway' and its potential impacts on the economy. We use evidence from 21...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123589
We use a North-South model with property right differences and resource dynamics to study the effects of trade on resource use and welfare. Autarky is likely to Pareto-dominate free trade in the long run when the environment is quite fragile, and the result is reversed when the environment is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123684
Malaysia recovered from the Asian financial crisis swiftly after the imposition of capital controls in September 1998 … play a significant role in facilitating Malaysia’s rebound. However, the financial crisis was deepening in Malaysia in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123814
It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504404
This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Structural change matters because, if the marginal product of labour varies across sectors, changes in the structure of employment can raise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504477
The adjustment of labour markets during transition has been quite different from that anticipated by the Optimal Speed of Transition (OST) literature. In particular, it has involved stagnant unemployment pools, large flows to inactivity and strikingly low workers' mobility especially when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498036
The surge in the German current account surplus in the 2000s is often interpreted as the result of efficiency-enhancing structural reforms, especially in the labor market. However, this interpretation is puzzling because the growth rate of the German economy has been one of the lowest in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083287
While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we use the last 30 years of data or the last 10 years of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083425