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Inflation Forecast Uncertainty
Söderlind, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
-1999. Three popular methods of estimating uncertainty from survey data are analysed in the context of models for forecasting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789160
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The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347
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The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
Orphanides, Athanasios; van Norden, Simon - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
to simple bivariate forecasting models which use past inflation and output growth. Forecast performance also appears to … call into question the practical usefulness of the output gap concept for forecasting inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791223
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Predicting recoveries and the importance of using enough information
Cai, Xiaoming; Den Haan, Wouter - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Several papers that make forecasts about the long-term impact of the current financial crisis rely on models in which there is only one type of financial crisis. These models tend to predict that the current crisis will have long lasting negative effects on economic growth. This paper points out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008477182
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Markov-switching MIDAS models
Guérin, Pierre; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481
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Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility
Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
This paper develops a method for producing current-quarter forecasts of GDP growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084707
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The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts
Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in … expectations. This paper analyses empirically whether enhanced central bank transparency lowers dispersion among professional … (economic) transparency, and given our findings that disagreement among inflation expectations in the general public is not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458290
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Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?
Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of … leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666459
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What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?
Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
and easy-to-use forecasting methods such as the no-change forecast. This does not mean that there is no useful information … demand for oil. Our empirical analysis of this index provides independent evidence of how shifts in market expectations about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792183
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New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US.
Aron, Janine; Muellbauer, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
, are estimated for 1974-99 and subsequent pseudo out-of-sample forecasting performance is examined. Alternative forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468684