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We investigate the effects of fiscal policy surprises for US data, using vector autoregressions. We overcome the difficulties that changes in fiscal policy may manifest themselves in variables other than fiscal variables first and that fiscal variables may respond ‘automatically’ to business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124017
study the effects of fiscal shocks keeping track of the debt dynamics that arises following a fiscal shock, and allowing for … the possibility that taxes, spending and interest rates might respond to the level of the debt, as it evolves over time …. We show that omitting a debt feedback can result in incorrect estimates of the dynamic effects of fiscal shocks. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497892
In the coming decades, the share of people in working age will fall significantly in most developed countries. According to optimal taxation theory, public debts should be reduced before the baby-boom generation retires. I find that if debts are instead maintained at the current levels, welfare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497919
We investigate the interdependence of fiscal policies, and in particular deficits, in the European Union using an empirical analysis based on real-time fiscal data. There are many potential reasons why fiscal policies could be interdependent, such as direct externalities due to cross-border...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497943
We analyse different forms of international debt mutualisation in a simple framework with a political distortion and … (partial) default under adverse economic circumstances. One form is a debt repayment guarantee, which can be "unlimited" or …, under which blue debt is guaranteed by the other countries in a union, while red debt is not guaranteed. Only a suitably …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083437
forecast of its future debt liabilities, and its potential to use tax policy to repay these. We use this measure to calculate … credit ratings for fourteen European countries over the period 1995-2012. This measure identifies a European sovereign debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083470
that this should have occurred earlier and the emphasis in fiscal policy on reducing debt rather than recovery from … to compute and easily automated. Whether based on an ad hoc debt-GDP limit or a DSGE model of an open economy, our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084436
How much additional tax revenue can the government generate by increasing labor income taxes? In this paper we provide a quantitative answer to this question, and study the importance of the progressivity of the tax schedule for the ability of the government to generate tax revenues. We develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084559
Fiscal consolidations achieved by means of spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. The difference cannot be explained by accompanying policies, including monetary policy, and it is mainly due to the different response of business confidence and private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084635
A methodology for generating sovereign credit ratings based on macroeconomic theory is proposed. This is applied to quarterly U.S. data from 1970 to 2011. Over this period the official credit rating of U.S. Treasury securities has been of the highest quality. In contrast, the model-based measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084723