Three mutually uncorrelated economic disturbances that we measure empirically explain 85% of the quarterly variation in real stock market wealth since 1952. A model is employed to interpret these disturbances in terms of three latent primitive shocks. In the short run, shocks that affect the...

This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent...

We propose a method to produce density forecasts of the term structure of government bond yields that accounts for (i) the possible mispecification of an underlying Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) and (ii) the time varying volatility of interest rates. For this, we derive a Bayesian...

Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return predictability and the failure to convert return forecasts into economic gains. We show that resolving this puzzle requires accounting for important features of bond return models such...

Theoretical asset pricing models routinely assume that investors have heterogeneous information. We provide direct evidence of the importance of information asymmetry for asset prices and investor demands using plausibly exogenous variation in the supply of information caused by the closure or...

Our objective in this paper is to examine whether one can use option-implied information to improve mean-variance portfolio selection with a large number of stocks, and to document which aspects of option-implied information are most useful for improving the out-of-sample performance of...

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...

This paper studies the asymmetric behavior of negative and positive values of analysts' earnings revisions and links it to the conservatism principle of accounting. Using a new three-state mixture of log-normals model that accounts for differences in the magnitude and persistence of positive,...

The single most important policy-induced innovation in the international financial system since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods regime is the institution of the European Monetary Union. This paper provides an account of how the process of financial integration has promoted financial...

This paper studies the determinants of global liquidity using data on cross-border bank flows, with a longer time series and broader country sample than previous studies. We define global liquidity as non-price determinants of cross-border credit supply, consistent with its meaning as the...