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debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries’ fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the … spreads during the crisis, not only for euro area countries but globally. By contrast, regional spillovers and contagion have … been less important, including for euro area countries. The paper also finds evidence for herding contagion – sharp …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084109
This Paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis, which generalizes … existing tests, and applies it to the international effects of the Hong Kong stock market crisis of October 1997. Contagion is … country-specific shocks in Hong Kong, our test finds evidence of contagion for 5 countries out of a sample of 17. This is in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791976
stock market. We conduct our analysis by explicitly considering the distinction between interdependence and contagion. By … equilibrium for US shares? Is there short-term interdependence and contagion between US and European stock markets, i.e. do short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067572
Recent episodes (October 2008, May 2010, August 2011) have witnessed huge spikes in equity price risk (implied volatility). Apart from their large size, several features characterize these risk panics. They are global phenomena, shared among a broad set of countries. There is substantial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084461
We build a model where sovereign defaults weaken banks’ balance sheets because banks hold sovereign bonds, causing private credit to decline. Stronger financial institutions boost default costs by amplifying these balance-sheet effects. This yields a novel complementarity between public debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466349
We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083481
Is the pricing of sovereign risk linear during bearish episodes? Or can initial shocks on economic fundamentals be exacerbated by endogenous factors that create nonlinearities? We test for nonlinearities in the sovereign bond market of European peripheral countries during the debt crisis and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084312
Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673
We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083620
On May 9, 2010 euro zone countries announced the creation of the European Financial Stability Facility as a response to the sovereign debt crisis. This paper investigates the impact of this announcement on bank share prices, bank CDS spreads and sovereign CDS spreads. The main private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009365641