We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent …

more prolonged and more devastating civil wars. Third, we identify sizeable spillovers; civil conflict spreads from the …

There is a great deal of interest in the causes and consequences of conflict in Africa, one of the poorest areas of the … world where only modest economic progess has been made. This paper asks whether post-colonial conflict is, at least in part …, a legacy of historical conflict by examining the empirical relationship between conflict in Africa since independence …

mining activity on the probability/intensity of conflict at the local level. This is both true for low-level violence (riots … conflict. We also find that secessionist insurgencies are more likely in mining areas, which is in line with recent theories of … secessionist conflict. …

subsequent economic performance of the newly independent countries. In cases of secession without conflict, independence did not … have a noticeable impact on ensuing economic performance. Secession achieved by conflict, by contrast, seriously dented …

This paper uses detailed information on the latitude and longitude of conflict events in Sub-Saharan African countries … country-level, these shocks have an insignificant impact on the overall probability of conflict outbreak, but do affect the …