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Not necessarily. The fundamental value of a firm increases with uncertainty about average future profitability, and this uncertainty was unusually high in the late 1990s. We calibrate a stock valuation model that includes this uncertainty, and show that the uncertainty needed to match the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123974
evidence for a recent bubble is found. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124041
During technological revolutions, stock prices of innovative firms tend to exhibit high volatility and bubble … likely; as a result, stock prices fall after an initial run-up. This 'bubble' in stock prices is observable ex post but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067467
crash of 1929 and the bursting of the Japanese bubble in 1989. We then present some stylized facts on boom-bust dynamics in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504739
for low inflation in both decades. The uncanny parallel of the stock market boom, bubble, and collapse in 1995-2001 as in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792478
We survey the recent literature on learning in financial markets. Our main theme is that many financial market phenomena that appear puzzling at first sight are easier to understand once we recognize that parameters in financial models are uncertain and subject to learning. We discuss phenomena...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661697
We present new stylized facts on bank and firm leverage for 2000-2009 using extensive internationally comparable micro level data from several countries. The main result is that there was very little buildup in leverage for the average non-financial firm and commercial bank before the crisis,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009283393
equity markets; international imbalances and foreign reserve adequacy; macroeconomic policies; and institutional and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969128
Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 countries; we focus on international linkages … are both national (such as equity market run-ups that preceded the crisis) and, critically, international financial and … number of possible causes in a flexible statistical framework, we are unable to find strong evidence that international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528523
This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124331