This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the...

This paper compares the properties of three electoral systems when voters have imperfect information. Imperfect information blurs voter decisions and may divorce the electoral outcome from the true preferences of the electorate. The challenge for electoral design is therefore to translate the...

This Paper analyses the welfare effects of price restrictions on private contracting in a world where agents have a limited cognitive ability. People compute the costs and benefits of entering a transaction with an error. The government knows the distribution of true costs and benefits as well...

Money managers are rewarded for increasing the value of assets under management, and predominantly so in the mutual fund industry. This gives the manager an implicit incentive to exploit the well-documented positive fund-flows to relative-performance relationship by manipulating her risk...

Money managers are rewarded for increasing the value of assets under management, and predominantly so in the mutual fund industry. This gives the manager an implicit incentive to exploit the well-documented positive fund-flows to relative-performance relationship by manipulating her risk...

This paper shows that a strictly increasing and risk averse utility function with decreasing absolute risk aversion is necessarily differentiable with a positive and absolutely continuous derivative. The cumulative absolute risk aversion function, which is defined as the negative of the...

This Paper examines irreversible investment in a project with uncertain returns, when there is an advantage to being the first to invest, and externalities to investing when others also do so. Pre-emption decreases and may even eliminate the option values created by irreversibility and...

When choosing a contraception method, women base their decisions on their subjective expectations about the realizations of method-related outcomes. Examples of such outcomes include getting pregnant, contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or experiencing side effects. By conducting a...

In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean-variance optimal portfolio. In contrast to the Bayesian approach to estimation error, where there is only a single prior and the investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case...

We analyze the investment decision of a population of time inconsistent entrepreneurs who overweight current payoffs relative to future returns. We show that, in order to avoid inefficient procrastination, agents may find it optimal to keep optimistic priors about their chances of success and...