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Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
Altug, Sumru G.; Cakmakli, Cem - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the … inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations … the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011168902
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The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy
Gordon, Robert J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123935
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Micro Evidence on the Adjustment of Sticky-Price Goods: It's How Often, Not How Much
Götte, Lorenz; Minsch, Rudolf; Tyran, Jean-Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
%) and fairly high (7%) inflation. Our results indicate that firms strongly react to inflation in the timing of their price … adjustment: hazard of price changes is increasing with time and becomes steeper at higher inflation rates. However, we find … little evidence that the amount by which they change the price responds to the inflation rate. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498134
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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi
Auer, Raphael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
pronounced increase of aggregate US producer price inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145441
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Unemployment in the EU: Institutions, Prices and Growth
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
This Paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labour market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124001
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Is the Natural Rate a Reference Point?
Karanassou, Marika; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper explores the two common concepts of the natural rate of unemployment: (i) the stable, long-run equilibrium rate of unemployment; and (ii) the equilibrium unemployment rate at which there is no tendency for this rate to change, given the exogenous variables. The first concept (common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136587
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Time-Varying Business Volatility, Price Setting, and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy
Bachmann, Rüdiger; Born, Benjamin; Elstner, Steffen; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083687
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Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective
Fiorito, Riccardo; Kollintzas, Tryphon - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
This paper investigates the basic stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 countries using quarterly data from 1960-89. The methodology used is based on Kydland and Prescott (1990). The evidence suggests that the real business cycles model can account for several important stylized facts for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662365
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Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?
Fan, Jingwen; Minford, Patrick - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level can deliver a reasonable explanation for UK inflation in … was accommodative. The model is tested for its implied cointegration between inflation and government spending and for its … dynamics by using the method of indirect inference, under which the model’s simulated behaviour is compared with the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468577