Showing 1 - 10 of 113
both create and share the risk associated with exchange rate volatility. In such circumstances, monetary policy can be used … of noise traders alters the composition of the market and generates excess exchange rate volatility, since noise traders … to lower exchange rate volatility without altering macroeconomic fundamentals. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666966
commensurate with their risk aversion; more risk-averse individuals pick lower-volatility stocks. The investors' portfolio …The preferred risk habitat hypothesis, introduced here, is that individual investors select stocks with volatilities … consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis: the portfolios contain highly similar stocks in terms of volatility, when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067451
Money demand instability has been the subject of considerable attention in the recent literature. This paper examines the stability of velocity series for the United States and for five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). A distribution-free test...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666582
This paper uses a threshold autoregressive (TAR) framework to assess the relative importance of structural breaks and asymmetric persistence in accounting for the post-war unemployment experience. In comparing unemployment patterns across time periods and countries, we take the US as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788887
This Paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791366
The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791637
We propose a new method to capture changes in hedge funds' exposures to risk factors, exploiting information from … 1994 and 2009, we find substantial evidence that hedge fund risk exposures vary significantly across months. Our new method … also reveals that hedge fund risk exposures vary within months, and capturing this variation significantly improves the fit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468551
This Paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of small sample properties of forecasts from general autoregressive models under structural breaks. Finite-sample results for the mean-squared forecast error of one-step-ahead forecasts are derived, both conditionally and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123678
We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. We provide an application...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124223
Standard macroeconomic models suggest that the ‘great ratios’ of consumption to output and investment to output should be stationary. The joint behaviour of consumption, investment and output can then be used to measure trend output. We adopt this approach for the USA and UK, and find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136779