inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap … clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one …

output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation … uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the … euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

pronounced increase of aggregate US producer price inflation. …

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth … curve for China and show that the output gap, the exchange rate, and inflation expectations play important roles in … explaining inflation. We adjust for structural change in the economy where possible and estimate regressions for rolling sample …

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and …

indicator and forecasting properties of the real interest rate gap for inflation, both in the model and in the data. Our results … suggest that the real interest rate gap has value as an inflation indicator, supporting the ‘neo-Wicksellian framework …

channel through which monetary policy lowers the volatility of inflation and, even more importantly, output. …