Using a numerical general equilibrium model we examine the possible production, trade and welfare effects of successful implementation of the Uruguay Round results. The model includes trade in manufactures and (some) services among industrial regions and countries; there is imperfect competition...

We study the relationship between geography and growth. To do so, we first develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. We...

This paper provides forecasts derived from Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models for the output growth, inflation and balance of payments of the G-5 and G-7 countries. These forecasts are compared with those derived from alternative time series models and with those provided by the...

This paper reviews three problems of the world economy since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system; an unreliable price mechanism, spending imbalances between countries, and increased technological competition. It argues that the third phenomenon is the most fundamental and creates potential...

We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks...

Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China’s FDI liabilities), these countries are large holders of official reserves....

This paper examines equilibrium growth and stability in the world economy using a North-South model in which there is assumed to be surplus labor in both North and South at an exogenously determined level of real wages. The model allows for substitution in consumption between primary commodities...

With increasing sophistication, economists have been estimating gravity equations for five decades. Robust evidence shows that borders and distance impede trade by much more than tariffs or transports costs can explain. We therefore advocate investigation of other sources of resistance, despite...

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market...