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Poor Countries or Poor People? Development Assistance and the New Geography of Global Poverty

Kanbur, Ravi; Sumner, Andy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

world’s poor live in Middle Income Countries (MICs). The dramatic shift has been brought about by fast growth in a number of … countries with large populations. On present trends, the poor in the MICs are likely to make up a substantial proportion of … reduction re-calibrate their engagement in MICs? The objective of this paper is to begin addressing these questions to spark …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009207525

Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?

Marin, Dalia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990

The comovement between exports and productivity observed in many countries suggests a direct link between these two variables. This paper tries to establish whether such a causal link exists for four developed market economies, using co-integration and Granger-causality techniques. These...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504339

A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business Cycle and the European Business Cycle

Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Richter, Christian - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

The search for and dating of a possible european business cycle, has been inconclusive. At this stage, there is no consensus on the existence of such a cycle, or of its periodicity and amplitude, or of the relationship of individual member countries to that cycle. Yet cyclical convergence is the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667009

Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083435

The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide the first formal analysis of this question with special attention to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083465

Window Selection for Out-of-Sample Forecasting with Time-Varying Parameters

Inoue, Atsushi; Jin, Lu; Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we use the last 30 years of data or the last 10 years of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083425

A Bayesian MIDAS Approach to Modeling First and Second Moment Dynamics

Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan G; Valkanov, Rossen - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

We propose a new approach to predictive density modeling that allows for MIDAS effects in both the first and second moments of the outcome and develop Gibbs sampling methods for Bayesian estimation in the presence of stochastic volatility dynamics. When applied to quarterly U.S. GDP growth data,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083475

Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth

Banerjee, Anindya; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Masten, Igor - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth. Our evaluation is based on using the variables in the ECB euro area model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662386

Can Book-to-Market, Size and Momentum Be Risk Factors That Predict Economic Growth

Liew, Jimmy; Vassalou, Maria - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

We examine the extent to which the profitability of the HML, SMB, and WML trading strategies can be linked to future GDP growth. Using a large cross-section of securities from ten developed markets, we find that the HML and SMB portfolios contain significant information about future GDP growth....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791430

The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation

Favero, Carlo A.; Kaminska, Iryna; Söderström, Ulf - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

This paper brings together two strands of the empirical macro literature: the reduced-form evidence that the yield spread helps in forecasting output and the structural evidence on the difficulties of estimating the effect of monetary policy on output in an intertemporal Euler equation. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791499

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