We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the pre-crisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits,...

When economic integration fosters expectations of productivity convergence, capital flows are driven by consumption-smoothing anticipation of income growth patterns as well as by factor-intensity equalization. In the euro area, financial integration eased accumulation of international...

We study how financial transactions may respond to exogenous variation in trade opportunities not only directly, but also through policy channels. In more open economies, governments may find it more difficult to fund and enforce public policies that substitute private financial transactions,...

We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest...

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

It is often believed that the German Economic and Monetary Unification will result in an appreciation of the DM. This conclusion is reached when attention is exclusively directed to the short-run demand side. In this note, it is shown that supply-side and long-term considerations suggest instead...

The purpose of this paper is twofold: it analyses how far the external opening-up process of the Spanish economy that started with its integration into the EEC in 1986 has led to a higher effective degree of capital mobility; and it examines what kind of capital flows, exchange-rate pressures...

This paper examines the appreciation of the dollar over the period 1980-85. The standard theories try to explain the increased demand for dollar assets by differential rates of return on bonds or by "safe-haven" arguments associated with the lower riskiness of United States assets. Neither of...

This paper investigates the empirical link between fiscal vulnerabilities and currency crashes in advanced economies over the last 130 years, building on a new dataset of real effective exchange rates and fiscal balances for 21 countries since 1880. We find evidence that crashes depend more on...

The two central economic problems facing Hungary are its large foreign debt and its relatively poor rate of growth over the 1980s. The paper examines some of the reform issues facing Hungary, starting with the tax reforms of 1988 and 1989, but concentrating on the importance of creating...