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Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods
Giacomini, Raffaella; Ragusa, Giuseppe - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor … realistic situation in which economic theory does not specify a likelihood for the variables of interest, and thus cannot be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320402
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Anchoring the Yield Curve Using Survey Expectations
Altavilla, Carlo; Giacomini, Raffaella; Ragusa, Giuseppe - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083961
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Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature
Giacomini, Raffaella - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
Does economic theory help in forecasting key macroeconomic variables? This article aims to provide some insight into … the question by drawing lessons from the literature. The definition of "economic theory" includes a broad range of … examples of theory-based forecasting that have not proven useful, such as theory-driven variable selection and some popular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084122
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Why are firms that export cleaner? International trade and CO2 emissions
Forslid, Rikard; Okubo, Toshihiro; Ulltveit-Moe, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper develops a model of trade and CO2 emissions with heterogenous firms, where firms make abatement investments and thereby have an impact on their level of emissions. The model shows that investments in abatements are positively related to firm productivity and firm exports. Emission...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322978
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Energy Demand and Trade in General Equilibrium: An Eaton-Kortum-type Structural Model and Counterfactual Analysis
Egger, Peter; Nigai, Sergey - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper sheds light on the role of the impact of taxes on energy production versus tariffs on imported goods for trade, energy demand, and welfare. For this, we develop a structural Eaton-Kortum type general equilibrium model of international trade which includes an energy sector. We estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009644033
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A Many-Country Model of Industrialization
Breinlich, Holger; Cuñat, Alejandro - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We draw attention to the role of economic geography in explaining important cross-sectional facts which are difficult to account for in existing models of industrialization. By construction, closed-economy models that stress the role of local demand in generating sufficient expenditure on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009207519
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Theories of Heterogeneous Firms and Trade
Redding, Stephen J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
This paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on heterogeneous firms and trade, which emphasizes firm selection into international markets and reallocations of resources across firms. We discuss the empirical challenges that motivated this research and its relationship to traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466333
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The Economic Geography of Trade Production and Income: A Survey of Empirics
Overman, Henry G; Redding, Stephen J.; Venables, Anthony J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
This Paper surveys the empirical literature on the economic geography of trade flows, factor prices, and the location of production. The discussion is structured around the empirical predictions of a canonical theoretical model. We review empirical evidence on the determinants of trade costs and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662227
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Can Comparative Advantage Explain the Growth of US Trade?
Cuñat, Alejandro; Maffezzoli, Marco - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
We present a dynamic comparative advantage model in which moderate reductions in import tariffs can generate sizable increases in trade volumes over time. A fall in import tariffs has two effects on the volume of trade. First, for given factor endowments, it raises the degree of specialization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662267
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The World Income Distribution
Acemoglu, Daron; Ventura, Jaume - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
We show that even in the absence of diminishing returns in production and technological spillovers, international trade leads to a stable world income distribution. This is because specialization and trade introduce de facto diminishing returns – countries that accumulate capital faster than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662414