The standard expectations augmented theory of ex-ante purchasing power parity (PPP), which was first developed by Roll, assumes that agents are risk neutral. A Covered Purchasing Power Condition is developed which holds for the general case of risk aversion. A risk-augmented form of ex-ante PPP...

We use genetic programming techniques to identify optimal technical trading rules. We find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to the rules for each of six exchange rates ($/DM, $/Yen, $/SF, $/£, DM/Yen, SF/£), over the period 1981–95. Some of the rules...

Macroeconomic models of equity returns perform poorly. The proportion of daily index returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, our model includes a concept from microstructure order flow. Order flow is the proximate determinant of...

Nowadays researchers can choose the sampling frequency of exchange rates and interest rates. If the number of observations per contract period is large relative to the sample size, standard GMM asymptotic theory provides unreliable inferences in UIP regression tests. We specify a bivariate...

One of the reasons for governments to use capital controls is to obtain some degree of monetary independence. This paper investigates the link between capital controls and interest differentials/ forward premia. This to test whether they can indeed give governments the power to drive exchange...

A salient feature of recent currency speculations in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism is that the speculators can be big strategic players in the market, along with the central bank. This paper develops a game-theoretic model that captures this feature of the speculative market. For a regime...

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical...

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...

We study a model where the aggregate trading of currency speculators reveals new information to the central bank and affects its policy decision. We show that the learning process gives rise to coordination motives among speculators leading to large currency attacks and introducing...