Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This … study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by …

In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the … inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations … the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation …

. The model identifies a measure of “pure” inflation: the common component in goods’ inflation rates that has an … equiproportional effect on all prices and is uncorrelated with relative price changes at all dates. The estimates of pure inflation and … pure inflation accounts for 15-20% of the variability in overall inflation, so that most changes in inflation are …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information …

components improves forecast accuracy of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in …

Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many … current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The … world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the …

Extending recent theoretical contributions on sources of inflation inertia, we argue that monetary policy uncertainty …