Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the … in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits … various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout …

prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors …

I develop a model of group decision-making, in which a committee generates proposals and holds open discussions, but … the ultimate decision is either taken by a leader (decision by authority) or by majority vote. Optimal communication … that by favouring one particular agent — the leader — authoritative decision-making reduces rent-seeking discussions and …

The phenomenon of choice shifts in group decision-making is fairly ubiquitous in the social psychology literature …. Faced with a choice between a ‘safe’ and ‘risky’ decision, group members appear to move to one extreme or the other … situations. This Paper demonstrates that from an individual decision-making perspective, choice shifts may be viewed as a …

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets … in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil …