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We evaluate the Smets-Wouters model of the US using indirect inference with a VAR representation of the main US data series. We find that the original New Keynesian SW model is on the margin of acceptance when SW's own estimates of the variances and time-series behaviour of the structural errors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496457
Tests for long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) may lack power with sample periods corresponding to the span of the recent float, leading researchers to use more powerful multivariate unit root tests. We point out a potential problem with such tests: joint non-stationarity of real exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791733
The drift-adjustment method estimates the expected rate of depreciation within an exchange rate band by simple equations. Papers applying this method claim that, while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791773
This paper adds a highly-leveraged financial sector to the Ramsey model of economic growth and shows that this causes the economy to behave in a highly volatile manner: doing this strongly augments the macroeconomic effects of aggregate productivity shocks. Our model is built on the financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322500
Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent effects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322501
volatility of revenues, have failed to save a sufficiently high proportion of their resource revenues and failed to make high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385762
-root process. Hyperbolic and quasi-hyperbolic discount factors can significantly increase the volatility of aggregate wealth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662071
primarily from convergence in the volatility of state output growth, rather than in its average. The realized industry shares of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662195
volatility into these four sources, quantify their contribution to aggregate volatility, and study how they relate to the stage …, and slowly increases at later stages of development. Third, the volatility of country- specific macroeconomic shocks falls … with the level of development. We argue that many theories linking volatility and development are not consistent with these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662216
This paper studies three different measures of monthly stock market volatility: the time-series volatility of daily … market returns within the month; the cross-sectional volatility or ‘dispersion’ of daily returns on industry portfolios …, within the month. Over the period 1962–95 there has been a noticeable increase in firm-level volatility relative to market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662245